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                                                                                                                                                                          澳博线上娱乐:瑞达期货:节前需求转淡,玉米维持区间震荡

                                                                                                                                                                          2019年01月30日 17:01 来源:时尚网

                                                                                                                                                                          (原标题:瑞达期货:节前需求转淡,玉米维持区间震荡)

                                                                                                                                                                          盘面情况:C1905日内减仓上涨,最高报1867,最低报1858,收盘1865,较上一交易日+0.48%;成交量22.2万,+0.83万;持仓1079768,-32358,基差8,-8;C5-9月价差-33,+1。CS1905日内增仓上涨,最高报2332,最低报2323,收盘2330,较上一交易日+0.26%;成交量7.3万,-2.57万;持仓183728,+2096,基差120,-3;CS5-9月价差-28,-1。

                                                                                                                                                                          消息:截至1月24日,河北淀粉企业的加工利润约0.06元/吨,较前一周下降2.88元/吨;吉林约68.65元/吨,较前一周上涨17.3元/吨;山东约-99.46元/吨,较前一周下降4.24元/吨。

                                                                                                                                                                          现货市场:玉米锦州港报价1873,+5。淀粉河北报价2460,+0;吉林报价2450,+0;山东报价2550,+0。(单位:元/吨)

                                                                                                                                                                          仓单库存:玉米仓单37998手,+0,位于历史较高水平。淀粉仓单2841手,+0,位于历史平均水平。

                                                                                                                                                                          主力持仓:C1905合约前20名多头持仓415944,-5097,前20名空头持仓362931,-353,前20名净持仓53013,-12855;CS1905合约前20名多头持仓75745,+1332,前20名空头持仓66071,+2739,前20名净持仓9674,-465。(单位:手)

                                                                                                                                                                          总结:供应方面,距离春节只剩6天的时间,粮农手中余粮同比仍高,而粮农年前有还贷压力,粮农卖粮变现需求增加,年前售粮压力较大。此外,中方代表团已抵美,中美经贸谈判再起,玉米及其替代品的进口预期给心理层面施压。需求方面,节日氛围越来越浓,国内玉米现货市场进入收尾阶段,市场购销逐步转淡。不过考虑到国家收购政策发布的提振,底部种植成本的支撑,预计玉米节前下跌空间有限。整体而言,预计玉米期价后期走势为震荡运行。技术上,C1905合约压力位1880元/吨,支撑位1840元/吨。操作上,C1905合约建议在1840-1875区间内高抛低吸,止损各12元/吨。淀粉方面,受原料玉米的影响比较大。此外,淀粉库存较高,淀粉的终端企业备货基本完成,下游走货不畅,整体上供求趋松。不过,考虑到距离春节只剩6天的时间,企业陆续放假,预计后期淀粉企业开机率会有较大幅度的下滑,对淀粉价格起到支撑作用。整体而言,预计淀粉后期震荡走势为主。CS1905的压力位2351元/吨,支撑位2300元/吨,建议在2320买入,止损2305,目标2350元/吨。

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